Bruce Springsteen may have been talking about the economy's connection to commercial real estate when he sang, "We're runnin' now, but darlin' we will stand in time to face the ties that bind" in his 1980s hit "The Ties that Bind."
The tale of the last month has been one of nasty economic realities sinking in and disturbing a commercial real estate market that was poised to rebound.Perhaps the most important news to commercial real estate continues to be stalled job growth.
Because of heightened economic uncertainty, businesses and individuals alike continue to stockpile cash and safe investments because they are not confident about the future.
Despite a concerted Federal Reserve effort to get money circulating, cash continues to sit on the sidelines. This affects job growth.
Arguably, the largest uncertainty facing the economy is housing.Ownership and investment in a home typically have the largest impact on an individual's net worth, and, therefore, the consumer's outlook.
New housing also is a large creator of employment in the U.S. as well as consumer spending for household-related goods. But the housing sector has been on its rear end for five years, and there is no end in sight.
Record low interest rates would seem to be a good policy for increasing housing demand.But banks are gun-shy about lending and have tightened their underwriting standards so fewer people can qualify for these low interest rates.
This paradigm is playing out in commercial real estate lending in which weaker sponsors and properties are not able to access the capital markets.
This is typical in a recovery in which banks are getting their balance sheets back in a condition to take more risk.What is confusing and threatens to undermine a natural return to taking risk is the government's $196 billionlawsuit against 17 major banks, the largest producers of home loans and commercial real estate loans. The suit was filed Sept. 2.
At best, this will slow new lending on homes. At worst, it will undermine banks' ability to lend on other assets because of the looming liability related to the lawsuit.
Bad news for some, however, can be good news for others.
Apartment developers and investors continue to benefit from the lack of demand for homeownership. Banks are noticing.
In the latest quarterly banking profile by the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp., apartment loans were the only significant beneficiary of lending during the past quarter and past 12 months.
The FDIC report shows that loans secured by real estate fell about $36.5 billion during the second quarter and $215.5 billion during the past year.
Commercial real estate loans fell about $5.3 billion during the second quarter and $22.2 billion in the past year. Multifamily loans, however, increased by $1.3 billion in both the second quarter and during the past year.
The Federal Reserve is doing virtually everything to ease monetary policy to try to get money circulating, but how do rates get more accommodative than where they are now?
The 10-year Treasury is hovering at 2 percent, and shorter term Treasuries are at or near zero percent. The low Treasury yields are benefiting commercial and multifamily real estate borrowers, but the cheapest rates are available to a select few.
The five- and 10-year loan rates are 3.75 to 4.75 percent, according to the John B. Levy Commercial Mortgage Survey. Loans for multifamily borrowers continue to be available at much cheaper rates from government-backed HUD, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac programs.
The government arguably has no reason to back market-rate multifamily projects at rates that are lower than are offered by institutional investors, but undoubtedly, apartment loans are a good investment today.
Despite a downbeat economic forecast from Fannie Mae for the near term and into 2012, demand and supply favor apartments for the foreseeable future.
The Richmond multifamily market should benefit in 2012 and during the next five years from an imbalance of demand over supply, according to data from commercial real estate brokerage CB Richard Ellis.The report predicts a modest uptick in the vacancy rate through the end of the year to 7 percent before demand outpaces supply in 2012 when the vacancy rate should fall to 5.1 percent.The report forecasts continued rental growth through 2016 and a reduction in vacancy to 4.6 percent.